What Does the 2025 Central Pacific Hurricane Season Have in Store? How Hurricanes Are Changing

It’s time to prepare for the 2025 Central Pacific hurricane season. The hurricane season officially starts on May 15. While hurricanes are not a new threat to the region, climate change, shifting weather patterns and new technologies may alter the experience for residents and businesses in Hawaii.

The 2025 Pacific Hurricane Forecast

AbsoluteClimo’s forecast predicts that no hurricanes will make landfall in Hawaii in 2025, but there is a 20% chance of a tropical storm hitting the Big Island. Hopefully, Hawaii will not see any hurricanes make landfall this year, but there is still a risk of severe weather, and residents should be prepared.

The Impact of El Niño and La Niña

One key variable in the hurricane forecast involves the El Niño and La Niña weather patterns. NOAA explains that El Niño and La Niña create a “see-saw” effect between the Pacific and Atlantic oceans by strengthening hurricane activity in one region and weakening it in the other.

• El Niño typically generates stronger hurricane activity in the central and eastern Pacific basins with weaker hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin.
• La Niña does the opposite, contributing to weaker hurricane activity in the central and easter Pacific basins and strong hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin.

According to USA Today, La Niña conditions have recently ended giving way to a neutral period.

The Impact of Climate Change

A warmer climate results in more severe hurricane activity. The Environmental Defense Fund explains that warmer temperatures lead to more intense evaporation, and storms pull in more water vapor and heat as they move over warmer oceans. At the same time, rising sea levels contribute to more extreme storm surges. As a result of all of this, we’re seeing strong winds, higher storm surges and record rainfall.

Tropical storm patterns also appear to be changing as a result of climate change. According to the Center for Climate and Energy Solutions, warming in the mid-latitudes is resulting in more storms in higher latitudes. In the Pacific, storms have been reaching peak intensity farther north because of this.

The University of Hawaii says that hurricanes are still relatively rare events in Hawaii, but there’s evidence to suggest that all of the major islands have been struck by strong windstorms at some point. Since 1950, five hurricanes or tropical storms have caused serious damage. In 1992, Hurricane Iniki hit Kauai with sustained winds of 130 mph and caused more than $2.3 billion in property damage.

Improvements in Storm Monitoring Technology

Although storms may be getting worse due to climate change, better storm monitoring technology may at least give residents more warning and thus more time to prepare.

The National Hurricane Center has announced updates to its storm warnings. In addition to a new cone graphic that includes information on inland tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings for the continental U.S., the NHC has also updated its criteria for tropical cyclone advisory products for Potential Tropical Cyclones, disturbances that have not reached the level of tropical cyclones yet but that nevertheless pose a threat of tropical storm or hurricane conditions to land areas. This change will allow alerts of Potential Tropical Cyclones up to 72 hours in advance of the anticipated storm surge or tropical-storm-force winds.

Are You Prepared for the 2025 Pacific Hurricane Season?

Hopefully this year’s hurricane season will be mild, but a tropical storm or hurricane is always a risk, so residents and businesses need to be prepared.

• Stock emergency supplies, including food, water, medications and other items that may be needed during an emergency. See gov for more information.
• Have an emergency plan. Families should have a plan on how to stay safe and communicate during an emergency. Businesses also need an emergency plan and business continuity plan.
• Watch the forecast. The earlier you know of an imminent threat, the better you can prepare. You can sign up for alerts.
• Review your insurance. In addition to renters, homeowners or commercial property insurance, you may need a separate flood insurance policy and a separate hurricane insurance policy.

Do you need help securing insurance ahead of the 2025 Pacific hurricane season? Find an agent.